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Demographics “Killed” Inflation

A recent Bloomberg story trotted out the usual suspects in explaining the persistence of low inflation in the United States, e.g. the globalized supply of labor, the impact of Amazon, etc.  A point to emphasize, however is that the persistence…

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Medicare – More Good News

The recently released communication from the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds forecasts that Medicare expenditures as a percentage of GDP will be lower than projections made in 2016.  This continues the…

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The Revival of the American Middle Class

The Census Bureau reported real median household income of $59,039 in 2016.  Following the 5.2% gain recorded for 2015, the 2016 increase of 3.2% is the strongest back-to-back gain since 1998-1999.  Most of the media commentary has been negative, e.g.…

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A Preview of August Wage Inflation

This coming Friday, there will be considerable attention focused on Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) when the Employment Situation report for August is released.  Relative to the 2.53% percent change from the year-ago month already published for July, there is a…

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Some Perspectives on Housing

Highlights of the attached report are: The recovery in sales of both new and existing homes post crisis continues at a very modest pace. The share of total home sales comprised of new homes, however, is still well below the…

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A Solid Fed Friendly Employment Report

The Employment Situation report for July was chock full of good news: Wage inflation remains subdued making the report very Fed friendly. The average monthly increase in household employment of 270,000 for the first seven months of this year marks…

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A 3 Handle for NAIRU

The lack of an acceleration in wage inflation continues to baffle most commentators.  The most recent results for the Employment Cost Index (ECI) reveals a continuation of subdued wage inflation despite or in spite of a low unemployment rate.  We…

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