The most important conclusion stemming from analysis of the changes in the age structure of the US population this decade is that the continued ageing of the US population means that the “full-employment unemployment rate” (NAIRU) is below 3%, i.e.,…
There is some continuity but for the most part substantial changes in the living arrangements of young adults in America (persons aged 18-24 years old). Since 1967, the principal element of stability is that the percentage of men who live…
Four years ago, our report on the Demographics of the Trump Presidency highlighted the fact that his term in office would begin with the U.S. economy in the demographic sweet spot of faster growth in the labor force (producers) relative…
Central bank monetary easing, liquidity injections and asset purchases have prevented financial catastrophe. In nearly all developed economies, central banks have pushed interest rates below 1 per cent. Interest rates are negative for 20% of them. Although central banks have…
The rate of increase in health care expenditures as a share of the U.S. economy has essentially stalled, a development which is contrary to earlier concerns that the interaction of an increase in the silver tsunami with the fact that…
Payroll employment increased by 661,000 and household employment rose by 275,000 in September. Both gains are less than half of what occurred in August and it leaves both measures of employment at less than half of where they were in…
Much of what has been written regarding the Fed’s revision of its monetary policy neglects the fact that inflation-targeting has been a major failure the past 20 years. In the first decade of this century, the 2% core PCE deflator…
It took 77 months for payroll employment to surpass its value as of December 2007, the month that marked the beginning of the Global Financial Recession. Although the length and severity of the recession undoubtedly played a role in the…
U.S. labor markets are emitting distress signals. Whereas the number of unemployed persons declined by almost 2.8 million in August, there is an increasing problem with duration. The proportion of the unemployed who have been unemployed for 15-26 weeks spiked…
Are long-term interest rates low because of the expectation that the economic recovery will be lacklustre or are they low because the fixed income market expects inflation to remain subdued (structural disinflation resulting from an ageing planet)? Our position that…