At a client meeting last week, one of the attendees remarked that for a long time I was the only one doing demographics but everyone seems to be involved today.  This appears to have occurred in reaction to trying to…

The expectation that the June employment report would be weak thus paving the way for an immediate reduction in interest rates by the Fed was seemingly upended by renewed strength.  Payroll employment increased by 224,000.  Wage inflation remained moderate with…

About 15 years ago, I made a presentation on Economic and Investment Implications of Global Demographics at an Insurance conference.  Then as now, a core theme of my remarks was “The Race to Zero”, i.e. that an ageing population would…

Immigration reform is likely to be a significant issue in the upcoming Presidential primaries and election.  With that in mind, it is important to have a factual perspective regarding the significance of the Foreign-born to the US economy.   Foreign-born employment…

There is speculation that the FOMC meeting which begins tomorrow may redefine maximum employment, i.e. the rate of unemployment which is low enough to generate higher inflation.  Actual unemployment has been below the estimate used by the FOMC for more…

Wage inflation as measured by Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) remained true to form declining from 3.2% in April to 3.1% in May because AHE increased by 6 cents per hour in May 2019 which was less than the 9 cents…

Two years ago, our analysis on “How Fast Can the U.S. Grow?” revealed that real per capita GDP has increased at an amazingly stable rate of about 2% per year from 1870 to 2015.  Although adding in the last 3…

Overlooked in the debate regarding “merit-based” versus “family reunification” legal immigration is the difference that it makes for the US economy in terms of the labor force and housing demand.  The current dominance of “family reunification” means that the US…

In 2015, the Federal Open Market Committee estimated that NAIRU (Non Accelerating Inflation rate of Unemployment) could not go below 5.1%.  The unemployment rate is now 3.6% yet inflation remains low.  The continued persistence of moderate wage inflation and low…

Investors were pleased that the April payroll employment surprised to the upside but dissatisfied that wage inflation came in less robustly than expected.  The disappointment on wage inflation is likely to persist for another month as May of last year…