For the third time in the past nine years, the core PCE deflator was unable to either pierce or even hold steady at the presumed Fed-friendly level of 2%.  The inflation rate fell to 1.6% in March.  That made March…

Based on our analysis of the demographic state of the world, we are structural disinflationists, i.e. the “norm” is for inflation to remain low.  Barring a synchronized world business cycle, surprises will tend to be to the downside.  So, we…

True to form, wage inflation decelerated to 3.2% in March versus 3.4% in February.  The monthly increase was 4 cents per hour versus 9 cents per hour in March 2018, in line with our research which shows that ‘big” increases…

Slower economic growth in China was both inevitable and predictable.  That it happened at the same time with a decline in the number of persons of working age is not coincidental.  The Chinese labor force is shrinking.  The setback in…

When considering demographically related investment issues, a long-held maxim of mine is that one can react to what is happening now or consider what will happen next and be positioned to take advantage of the foresight.  The usual demographic focus…

The consensus forecast for price inflation this year was for acceleration.  Instead, core CPI inflation continues to decelerate (see Chart 1) with monthly increases trailing last year for both January and February (see Chart 2).  The world is awash with…

An earlier report highlighted the fact that the US was winning the global war for inventors.  A World Bank research report (2016) revealed that the world’s highly skilled immigrants are increasingly living in just four countries: the United States, the…

As previously discussed, the reduction in the growth rate of the US population reflects a decline in both the rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) and immigration.  This culminated in the US recording the slowest population growth in past…

In his State of the Union address, President Trump signalled a shift on legal immigration by suggesting that he is open to easing curbs on high skilled immigration.  In his remarks regarding the payroll job increase of 304,000 for January,…

The world is making great progress towards building a more inclusive global information society.  ITU, the United Nations specialized agency for information and communications estimates that at the end of 2018, 51.2% of the global population (3.9 billion people) will…