Until recently, the ratio of the CPI for commodities excluding food and energy (core commodities) to the CPI for services excluding energy services (core services) had consistently declined for the past 50+ years with almost no interruption (see Charts 1…
Imagine the following scenario – extended and expanded unemployment benefits end, schools have fully reopened, parents are able to arrange proper child care, and the population is sufficiently vaccinated and/or herd immunity is achieved. In other words, all of the…
We knew that the CPI for April would be gruesome, and we were not disappointed. The Core CPI rose by 0.9%, its largest monthly increase since April 1982. The comparison to the same month in the prior year jumped to…
Mea Culpa – in the two previous discussions on the employment report, my opinion was that the increase in long-term unemployment (27 or more weeks) reflected persons who were employed in personal contact occupations and as the recovery blossomed, they…
Recent news has been dominated by concerns regarding inflation. The question is not whether there will be some inflation this year, but whether it will represent “overheating” of the economy. Concerns associated with high government spending, supply bottlenecks and the…
The first results from the 2020 Census were finally released. The purpose of this first set of numbers – total populations for states – is to provide the basis for allocating members of the House of Representatives. Highlights of the…
Although the monthly employment report provides considerable information regarding individuals, it is an inadequate metric in understanding the U.S. consumer because most consumer decision units (households) are comprised of families (defined as two or more persons related by blood, marriage,…
It is well known that the base effect will result in a substantial acceleration in the Core CPI inflation rate for the next few months. What is unrecognized is that the base effect will flip, reducing the rate of inflation…
The number of employed persons increased by 609,000 in March, a development that was overshadowed by the payroll job gain of 916,000. It is still true, however, that household employment has staged a faster recovery than payroll. The number of…
It is well known that population ageing is proceeding the fastest in the developed world. Less well appreciated is that the “silver tsunami” is the only game in town for nearly every developed country. Almost all of the population change…