Our opinion has long been that Texas has one of the best, if not the best demographic profile of any state in America.  NAFTA is a big positive as the state has the longest border that is contiguous with the…

The Fed’s projection that the unemployment rate has more room to decline is very encouraging.  Their median estimate of 3.8% this year and then to 3.6% through 2020 is nearly a full percentage point lower than the Fed’s long-run forecast…

There continues to be no evidence that the U.S. economy is close to or on the verge of overheating.  The number of persons not in the labor force declined by 653,000 in February and the participation rate rose by 0.3…

There continues to be no evidence that the U.S. economy is close to or on the verge of overheating.  The number of persons not in the labor force declined by 653,000 in February and the participation rate rose by 0.3…

There have been numerous reports to the effect that the economic recovery that followed the financial crisis has been the weakest post-war expansion.  As of the fourth quarter of last year, cumulative growth in real per capita GDP is only…

Although the increase in the January CPI was larger than expected, the true core issue in the inflation debate are wages, i.e. the concern that higher wage inflation will translate into higher price inflation with the combination resulting in a…

The five-month long decline in the foreign born population was strongly reversed in January.  Prior weakness in the foreign born labor force was also followed by a sharp rebound.  The other interesting aspect is that the foreign born unemployment rate…

I don’t normally provide instantaneous comments on economic releases but today’s release on January wages tests my forecast of continued wage moderation in 2018.  The headline that January wage growth of 2.9% is the highest reading on wage inflation since…

The Fed is projecting further increases in interest rates because they believe that the economy is very close to full employment - wages should begin increasing any second now which will lead to higher price inflation.  Our view is that…

Even as Congress and the Trump administration are debating possible immigration reform, it appears that the previous period of animosity towards immigrants may already be having a chilling effect on the potential number of foreign-born workers.  The foreign born population…