Another Nail in the Coffin of Inflation It is a mistake to always interpret low inflation in the United States as reflecting weakness in the pace of economic activity. Another nail in the coffin of inflation results from changes in…
Fed chair Janet Yellen finally confirmed what we have discussed several times before – a rate of core price inflation that not only fails to reach the Fed’s target but is in fact retreating will result in at least a…
The continuation of a low unemployment rate in the United States has not produced higher wage inflation. Does this mean that the Phillips Curve no longer exists? The evidence that the Phillips Curve is very much alive is based on…
There is a high probability that the Employment Situation report for June to be released on July 7 will show an acceleration in wage inflation (percent change from the year-ago month) as measured by Average Hourly Earnings (AHE). We base…
Wage Inflation Less Likely to be Followed by Price Inflation A central tenet of the decision by the Fed to continue to increase the federal funds rate is the belief that a tighter labor market will produce higher wages which…
A dramatic and little-known reality about recent immigration flows to America was recently revealed in a report published by the Migration Policy Institute (2017). Despite the bias towards family reunification, 48% of recently arrived immigrants (those coming between 2011 and…
Inflation has again undershot expectations. What might have been a problematical issue for the Fed’s deliberation on interest rates was dismissed by Fed officials as “transitory”. Fed chair Janet Yellen said it was “fluky”. The Fed continues to expect that…
As described in the attached report, the following demographic issues are driving population change, reshaping the lives of people as around the world and creating investment opportunities and challenges: The most important driver of global economic growth will be the…
Recently released annual data on foreign-born workers (defined as individuals who reside in the U.S., but were born outside the country to parents who were not American citizens) reveals that their share of America’s labor force has risen steadily in…
Since 1992, our view has always been that inflation will surprise to the downside as a consequence of an ageing planet. That is not to say that there have not been cyclical upticks but the secular path is for very…