It is well known that the base effect will result in a substantial acceleration in the Core CPI inflation rate for the next few months.  What is unrecognized is that the base effect will flip, reducing the rate of inflation…

The number of employed persons increased by 609,000 in March, a development that was overshadowed by the payroll job gain of 916,000.  It is still true, however, that household employment has staged a faster recovery than payroll.  The number of…

It is well known that population ageing is proceeding the fastest in the developed world.  Less well appreciated is that the “silver tsunami” is the only game in town for nearly every developed country.  Almost all of the population change…

Fed Chairman Powell has stated that the expects inflation to increase this year as the pandemic recedes and Americans are able to go out and spend.  Our view is that inflation readings will surprise to the downside once we are…

If the US calculated labor force participation the same as all other countries, there would have been a celebration on February 1 of last year when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would have reported that the labor force participation…

Fed chairman Jerome Powell continues to make it clear that the most important priority for the Fed is the restoration of full employment.  Until a few years ago, the basic metric for evaluating slack in the labor market was the…

We estimate the gap between potential and actual GDP in the fourth quarter of last year to be $1.3 Trillion, which is considerably higher than the estimate of $666 Billion provided by The Congressional Budget Office (CBO).  Our conclusion is…

Implementation of the proposal to raise the minimum wage as currently drafted would outstrip the ability of the economy to absorb higher labor costs without raising prices or firing workers, affirming the oft-expressed opinion that a higher minimum wage results…

Our mantra since 1992 is that inflation will continue to surprise to the downside reflecting an ageing planet.  Any upticks are temporary and the secular path of low inflation quickly reappears.  As many are aware, it is highly likely that…

Based on the composition of household employment (more full-time workers) and the first increase in more than a year in the foreign-born population of working age, last month’s analysis of the December employment report concluded that the US labor market…