As we predicted, results for the April Core CPI clearly confirm that March was the peak (see Chart 1). This also confirms our analysis which focused on micro (supply issues) versus macro (excess demand, see Charts 2 and 3). Any…
Employment Characteristics of Families for the year 2021 is disappointing. Whereas the results for 2020 accurately depicted the negative impact of the onset of Covid-19, the results for 2021 reveal only a very modest improvement. In 2021, 78.5 percent of…
The battle between macro (excess demand) and micro (supply bottlenecks) now seems to be resolved in favor of micro, e.g., price increases for new vehicles, used cars and trucks are now in retreat. Moreover, there are signs of increasing resistance…
The March employment results represent surveys done in mid-March when the invasion of the Ukraine by Russia was still in its infancy. While we don’t know what will happen in subsequent months, US labor markets were in great shape. For…
It is a pity that the invasion of Ukraine will not only lead to higher prices for food and energy but may also further disrupt supply chains resulting in higher core inflation. We say pity because there were indications in…
While we wait to see how the invasion of Ukraine will unfold and what will be the economic impacts beyond inflation, labor markets were strong and healthy prior to the start of the invasion. For the first time in a…
The news that Russia is actively looking for mercenaries to aid in the invasion of Ukraine is not unexpected. In a report written in July 2012, I concluded that “A major consequence of the very rapid decline in the Russian…
Our report of 6 January compared current CPI developments with what occurred following World War II, a theme that was also discussed a few days later in The Wall Street Journal by Greg Ip (https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-7-inflation-today-is-far-different-than-in-1982-11642012166?mod=Searchresults_pos19&page=1). Plotting recent months versus the…
The recently released data on work experience of the population for 2020 reveals that the onset of Covid-19 was less negative for workers than commonly perceived. The number of persons who were employed at some point in the year 2020…
Investors finally got what they hoped for – a strong increase in payroll employment (+467K) in January made even better by an upward revision to December from +199K to +511K. Ignoring the fact that both gains are smaller than the…