The core CPI increased by 0.2% in September, marking the third month in a row of very modest increases in prices especially in comparison to the three previous months of April, May and June when the average monthly increase was…

The core CPI increased by only 0.1% in August, its smallest gain since February.  The result would have been even better were it not for the fifth consecutive increase in prices for new vehicles.  Higher prices in August for new…

We have seen this movie before.  BLS reported a weak payroll job increase (235,000) for August which created considerable angst in the investment community.  Ignored is the fact that the household survey revealed that the number of employed persons rose…

The Covid Delta Variant is a negative demand shock, which means that it reinforces disinflation.  Media stories have highlighted the fact that high frequency data for August is already showing the effect of reduced demand for services.  Although we do…

The July employment report confirms that the US is basically in great shape as it heads into the Delta variant of Covid.  Payroll employment increased by 943,000, a gain all the more impressive because of upward revisions to the previous…

continues to confirm our view that total wage inflation remains moderate, while at the same time acknowledging that some industries, e.g., Leisure and hospitality and Accommodation and food service are recording large advances that are very similar to what occurred…

Finally, some positive news for US demographics.  When Covid-19 debuted last year, a common observation was that the lockdown would result in an increase in births.  We disagreed based on analysis of prior pandemics.  But we also expected that the…

It is not surprising that persons who have been cooped up for more than a year are willing to pay hundreds of dollars per day for a rental car in Hawaii or dine at a restaurant without paying much attention…

Structural disinflation prevailed prior to the pandemic.  It will reappear once we get past the post-pandemic surge in demand that is accentuated by various supply issues.  Although the headlines for the surge in the CPI painted a grim picture, there…

Despite more than 20 years of contrary evidence, the view that an increase in the aged dependency ratio will be inflationary continues to thrive.  The latest entry is The Great Demographic Reversal by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan.  Their analysis…