Just when I thought that the impact of prices for used cars and trucks on the core CPI was behind us, they surged by 4.4% in April (see Chart 1), accounting for 31% of the increase in the core CPI. …

The labor market remains strong.  Companies added 253,000 jobs in April, the best gain since January and only slightly below the 12-month moving average (see Chart 1).  The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% as household employment rose by 139,000 (see…

Although the monthly employment report provides considerable information regarding individuals, it is an inadequate metric in understanding the U.S. consumer because most consumer decision units (households) are comprised of families (defined as two or more persons related by blood or…

With wage growth continuing to slow and job growth remaining robust, the March Employment Situation report was terrific news.   The deceleration in wage growth from 6.0 % in March of last year to nearly 4.0% is great news for those…

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) deflator for January released on February 24 fuelled concerns regarding Fed policy because it was interpreted that the uptick in core PCE inflation to 4.7% from 4.6% in December meant that the deceleration in inflation…

As we contemplate the outlook for monetary policy, the facts regarding the CPI are: For the fifth month in a row, increases in the CPI for shelter comprise more than 75% of the monthly increase in the core CPI (see…

  It is highly likely that Average Hourly Earnings (wages) to be published in the Employment Situation report for February will show a reversal in direction, i.e., an increase in year-on-year wages which had declined in nine of the past…

The core PCE deflator, which is the price index favored by the Fed, increased by 0.6% in January (see Chart 1).  The comparison to the same month last year rose to 4.7% - the equity market sold off sharply because…

Like many other commentators, we have highlighted the fact that the BLS methodology means that there is a lag between the time that changes in rents actually occur versus when those changes are reflected in the price index for rent…

  The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for private industry wages and salaries for the 12 months6. ended December 2022 confirms two facts: (1) the ECI peaked as of June 2022 at 5.7% year-on-year; it continues to decline, reaching 5.1% in…