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How Big is the Output Gap?

We estimate the gap between potential and actual GDP in the fourth quarter of last year to be $1.3 Trillion, which is considerably higher than the estimate of $666 Billion provided by The Congressional Budget Office (CBO).  Our conclusion is…

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Update on Inflation

Our mantra since 1992 is that inflation will continue to surprise to the downside reflecting an ageing planet.  Any upticks are temporary and the secular path of low inflation quickly reappears.  As many are aware, it is highly likely that…

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