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Inflation Hysteria Redux

Inflation hysteria is back.  The better than expected July CPI (no change from June) led to expectations that August would decline since it was already known that gasoline prices had declined.  Gasoline prices did drop but the CPI increased by…

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Peak Inflation?

There has been a radical shift regarding inflation and the Fed.  Prior emphasis on core inflation (CPI or PCE) has increasingly shifted to the CPI for all items.  Part of the explanation is that there was no change in the…

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Inflation Hysteria

The markets very negative reaction to the May all items CPI (8.1% year-on-year) is puzzling as continued problems with food (see Chart 1) and energy (see Chart 2) should have been well recognized in advance.  Overlooked was a modest improvement…

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