Is the bond market cruising for a bruising?  If it reacts negatively to a preliminary estimate of 2.9% for August 2018, what will happen if October 2018 wage inflation prints with a 3 handle?  The negative reaction to the 2.9%…

A recent comment in a Bloomberg Close email expressed being perplexed regarding new surveys which reveal that Americans have not been this optimistic about future income since 2001 despite or in spite of the fact that real wage gains have…

Although different in some respects from baby boomers, the lifecycle of millennials actually bears many similarities to the generations that preceded the baby boom.  The notion that millennials will be a renter generation repeats the pattern that prevailed prior to…

For several months prior to the release of the CPI for March 2018 there were many comments to the effect that the year-ago percent change would register a significant increase because of the comparison to the decline in March 2017…

Turkey’s economic and financial difficulties have ignited a wide range of worries, e.g. EM contagion, worries regarding European banks, etc.  Omitted in these concerns, however, is any discussion regarding the refugees in Turkey.  More than 3.5 million Syrians have sought…

Labor markets recorded another solid advance in July.  Wage inflation remained moderate, continuing to defy expectations that the combination of strong employment and moderate wage inflation cannot possibly last.  For the first seven months of this year, the average monthly…

The Federal Reserve’s “official” value for the natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is 4.65%.  That level was breached in March 2017.  In the 15 months since then, the unemployment rate has been consistently lower, with several recent months below 4%. …