As illustrated in the attached report, households continue to be formed at a robust pace –increasing by 1.232 million in the 12 months ended March 2016 according to the Current Population Survey. The growth would have been even stronger were…
Donald Trump’s term as President begins with the US economy in the demographic sweet spot of faster growth in the labor force (producers) relative to the rate of increase in the total population (consumers). The labor force is growing twice…
It is very much a foregone conclusion that the Federal Reserve will increase the federal funds rate when they meet in December. The real issue, therefore, is what is likely to occur next year. Coming into 2016, their expectation was…
The US is Winning the Global War for Inventors Our long-held view is that it will still be the Anglo-Saxon Century, a view recently supported by a new World Bank research report (2016) which reveals that the world’s highly skilled…
A recent NBER working paper (2016) concluded that 2/3 of the slowdown in productivity can be attributed to the ageing of the labor force, i.e. a rising share of older workers. The authors use of the share of the population…
Global government bonds are being pounded by fears of inflation. As elaborated in theattached report, it is not a concern that we share. The slowdown in global trade confirms that global demand remains subdued and with it pricing power. Global…
Another solid jobs report has led several observers to state that the US is now at full employment. We disagree. The attached report shows that the probability that the unemployed will remain unemployed has reversed in the past several months…
Significant changes are occurring across parts of urban America as a new class of more affluent residents is moving into once underinvested and predominately-poor communities, otherwise known as gentrification. Although gentrification is not yet very common, it has accelerated in…
To say that the demographic outlook for much of the EU is fragile is to understate the severity of their pending demographic winter. For the first time ever since the time series began in 1961, the European Union recorded negative…
It seems as though there is barely an hour that goes by without news regarding refugees, immigrants, immigration, etc. All too often, the facts are overlooked or distorted. The attached report examines one aspect of the issue by examining some…