When the unemployment rate fell below 6% in September 2014, more than a few economists proclaimed that the labor market was at full employment which would result in a sustained acceleration in wage growth. That chorus become even more vocal…
Recently released data on Employment Characteristics of Families suggests that current concerns regarding a lull or pause in consumer spending will be followed by the resumption of robust outlays. The number of families with at least one employed member recorded…
The Return of Low Inflation Our demographically inspired enthusiasm for a Fed-friendly investment environment is twofold. The first was that there is more slack in the labor markets than currently perceived which means that wage inflation remains moderate. This was…
The March Employment Report provided an abundance of evidence for the Fed to reconsider their projection of two additional hikes in the federal funds rate this year. Even as the unemployment rate fell to 4.5% in March, its lowest level…
There have been two significant developments in European migration and mobility: A Substantial Reduction in Migrant and Refugee Arrivals. The International Organization for Migration reported that 29,369 migrants and refugees entered Europe by sea through April 2 of this year…
It is always gratifying to have the conclusion of an analysis published nearly 10 years ago confirmed in a recent paper by Hanson et al (2017) which was presented at a Brookings Institute Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Conference. In…
Although many heralded the increase in Chinese births in 2016 (17.86 million versus 16.55 million in 2015) as evidence that the elimination of the one-child policy was working, the reality is that the results were very modest, confirming our view…
The “Race to Zero” is not over. The fundamentals that we identified 25 years ago that produce very low nominal interest rates have not changed. Of course, there have been cyclical interruptions which have led many to state that the…
We applaud President Trump’s desire to pass an immigration reform bill that could grant legal status to millions of undocumented workers living in the U.S. The bill would not grant a path to citizenship but would allow undocumented immigrants who…
Prompted by concerns that immigrants are taking U.S. jobs, the Trump administration has proposed plans to greatly enlarge the scope of deportation. Making many more illegal aliens as deportable persons certainly complicates if not mitigates the dual impact of the…