Recent data, e.g. consumer spending and production, confirm strong momentum for the US economy as it entered 2017, leading to increased speculation of an earlier than expected increase in monetary tightening. However, we disagree with the additional observation that the…
A month ago, the news that the year-ago percent change in Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) had spiked to 2.9% caused many observers to state that full employment had been breached and the Fed would have to increase the federal funds…
For nearly 150 years, real GDP per person in America has increased at an amazingly stable average rate of about 2% per year. As illustrated in the attached report, real per capita GDP of $51,517 in 2016 is nearly 17…
Wage inflation becomes ever more important due to Increased awareness that the labor market may be at or close to full employment. The attached report compares and contrasts the three most cited measures of wage inflation: (1) the Employment Cost…
Recent statistics released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics indicate an end to years of marriage and family decline. Since an intact family has been shown to offer numerous benefits, these changes bode well…
As we expected, the December employment data revealed an uptick in both the labor force participation rate and the unemployment rate. Nearly all of the commentary, however, focused on the news that the year-ago percent change in average hourly earnings…
As we expected, the December employment data revealed an uptick in both the labor force participation rate and the unemployment rate. Nearly all of the commentary, however, focused on the news that the year-ago percent change in average hourly earnings…
A very recent Wall Street Journal article highlighted the fact that the proportion of millennials (persons aged 18-34) living at home reached a 75-year high of 39.5% (http://www.wsj.com/articles/percentage-of-young-americans-living-with-parents-rises-to-75-year-high-1482316203?mod=trending_now_1).. It is a very misleading calculation, however, because it is overlooks the…
The US economy is on track to grow by 3% or better in 2017. This reflects the strong growth already registered in household formations, labor force and employment. A potential roadblock is the degree of slack in the labor markets…
The headline for November labor markets was little slack but not much heat. We disagree with the assessment that there is not much slack, a notion based on the decline in the unemployment rate to 4.6%. As described in the…