Defying expectations of weakness, payroll employment increased by 372,000 in June, in line with the average monthly gain of 383,000 in the prior 3 months. An additional issue that challenges the pessimists is that wage inflation continued to moderate…
The May decline in retail sales brought forth the usual reactions saying that the consumer was played out. That is clearly not the case. Household money income remains robust. The monthly employment report is a rich data source regarding activities…
The markets very negative reaction to the May all items CPI (8.1% year-on-year) is puzzling as continued problems with food (see Chart 1) and energy (see Chart 2) should have been well recognized in advance. Overlooked was a modest improvement…
Wage inflation as measured by average hourly earnings (AHE) eased for the second consecutive month – 5.2% in May versus 5.6% in March and 5.5% in April (see Chart 1). There will be even better news ahead – the percent…
As we had expected, inflation as measured by the core PCE price index eased with April higher by 4.9% versus March at 5.2% (see Chart 1). Whereas there was not much reaction to the better March number a month ago,…
The good news is that wages are higher and there are no signs of wage inflation – for the most part, the adjustment in low pre-covid wages is behind us and wage gains have stabilized which was the headline…
As we predicted, results for the April Core CPI clearly confirm that March was the peak (see Chart 1). This also confirms our analysis which focused on micro (supply issues) versus macro (excess demand, see Charts 2 and 3). Any…
Employment Characteristics of Families for the year 2021 is disappointing. Whereas the results for 2020 accurately depicted the negative impact of the onset of Covid-19, the results for 2021 reveal only a very modest improvement. In 2021, 78.5 percent of…
The battle between macro (excess demand) and micro (supply bottlenecks) now seems to be resolved in favor of micro, e.g., price increases for new vehicles, used cars and trucks are now in retreat. Moreover, there are signs of increasing resistance…
The March employment results represent surveys done in mid-March when the invasion of the Ukraine by Russia was still in its infancy. While we don’t know what will happen in subsequent months, US labor markets were in great shape. For…