It is a pity that the invasion of Ukraine will not only lead to higher prices for food and energy but may also further disrupt supply chains resulting in higher core inflation. We say pity because there were indications in…
While we wait to see how the invasion of Ukraine will unfold and what will be the economic impacts beyond inflation, labor markets were strong and healthy prior to the start of the invasion. For the first time in a…
The news that Russia is actively looking for mercenaries to aid in the invasion of Ukraine is not unexpected. In a report written in July 2012, I concluded that “A major consequence of the very rapid decline in the Russian…
Our report of 6 January compared current CPI developments with what occurred following World War II, a theme that was also discussed a few days later in The Wall Street Journal by Greg Ip (https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-7-inflation-today-is-far-different-than-in-1982-11642012166?mod=Searchresults_pos19&page=1). Plotting recent months versus the…
The recently released data on work experience of the population for 2020 reveals that the onset of Covid-19 was less negative for workers than commonly perceived. The number of persons who were employed at some point in the year 2020…
Investors finally got what they hoped for – a strong increase in payroll employment (+467K) in January made even better by an upward revision to December from +199K to +511K. Ignoring the fact that both gains are smaller than the…
The core CPI increased at a rapid rate for the third month in a row (see Chart 1). Is the past and the recent acceleration principally a macro event, i.e., primarily reflecting excess demand or is chiefly a micro event,…
For the third time last year, BLS reported a strong increase in household employment (+651K) and a weaker than expected gain in payroll employment (+199K). And for the third time, the media focused on weak payroll as signalling a less…
The unemployment rate declined to 3.9% in December, slightly higher than the 3.5% rate posted in February 2020. Although some would argue that this means that the economy is at or near full employment, analysis of labor force participation in…
Core inflation will peak in the Spring, surprising many because they do not pay attention to the past (markets trade without memory). The arrival of the peak could result in the Fed being less aggressive as the year unfolds. Inflation…