The Covid-19 surge in inflation represents the collision of strong demand and disruptions in supply because the supply chain has become increasingly dysfunctional. This is not the first time that such an imbalance resulting in an inflation surge has occurred. …

Our prior 3 reports on the CPI highlighted continued improvement in inflation.  The abrupt reversal that occurred in October is disappointing, but analysis of the details reaffirms our optimism that inflation will recede.  For the record, the CPI for all…

Restrained by supply side bottlenecks and the the upswing in the number of Covid-19 cases, real per capita GDP increased at annual rate of only 1.6% in the third quarter, down sharply from the 6.5% annual rate in the second…

The report on September employment essentially duplicates the August report – weak payroll employment and very strong household employment and the gap between them has become wider (see Chart 1).  The much more important issue is household employment because it…

The core CPI increased by 0.2% in September, marking the third month in a row of very modest increases in prices especially in comparison to the three previous months of April, May and June when the average monthly increase was…

The core CPI increased by only 0.1% in August, its smallest gain since February.  The result would have been even better were it not for the fifth consecutive increase in prices for new vehicles.  Higher prices in August for new…

We have seen this movie before.  BLS reported a weak payroll job increase (235,000) for August which created considerable angst in the investment community.  Ignored is the fact that the household survey revealed that the number of employed persons rose…

The Covid Delta Variant is a negative demand shock, which means that it reinforces disinflation.  Media stories have highlighted the fact that high frequency data for August is already showing the effect of reduced demand for services.  Although we do…

The July employment report confirms that the US is basically in great shape as it heads into the Delta variant of Covid.  Payroll employment increased by 943,000, a gain all the more impressive because of upward revisions to the previous…

continues to confirm our view that total wage inflation remains moderate, while at the same time acknowledging that some industries, e.g., Leisure and hospitality and Accommodation and food service are recording large advances that are very similar to what occurred…