Fed Chairman Powell has stated that the expects inflation to increase this year as the pandemic recedes and Americans are able to go out and spend.  Our view is that inflation readings will surprise to the downside once we are…

If the US calculated labor force participation the same as all other countries, there would have been a celebration on February 1 of last year when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) would have reported that the labor force participation…

Fed chairman Jerome Powell continues to make it clear that the most important priority for the Fed is the restoration of full employment.  Until a few years ago, the basic metric for evaluating slack in the labor market was the…

We estimate the gap between potential and actual GDP in the fourth quarter of last year to be $1.3 Trillion, which is considerably higher than the estimate of $666 Billion provided by The Congressional Budget Office (CBO).  Our conclusion is…

Implementation of the proposal to raise the minimum wage as currently drafted would outstrip the ability of the economy to absorb higher labor costs without raising prices or firing workers, affirming the oft-expressed opinion that a higher minimum wage results…

Our mantra since 1992 is that inflation will continue to surprise to the downside reflecting an ageing planet.  Any upticks are temporary and the secular path of low inflation quickly reappears.  As many are aware, it is highly likely that…

Based on the composition of household employment (more full-time workers) and the first increase in more than a year in the foreign-born population of working age, last month’s analysis of the December employment report concluded that the US labor market…

It is well known that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is eager to return to the period of low unemployment that preceded the pandemic, ostensibly regretting the tightening she began in 2015 as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.  The then commencement…

President Biden signed several executive orders regarding immigration as well as proposing legislative changes to US immigration policy.  For the most part, the executive orders reverse or pause many of the anti-immigration measures enacted during the Trump administration.  The principal…

survey.  The first and most important is that the foreign-born population of working age increased for the first time in more than a year, resulting in an increase in their share of the total working age population.  The other positive…