Our forecast of price inflation, wage inflation and interest rates has long been driven by the results of our demographics analysis – specifically that an ageing planet is structurally disinflationary. Our reports have emphasized the expectation that price inflation and…
As described in a recent article by Greg Ip of The Wall Street Journal, Blue Chip Economic Indicators (forecasts) made during the last decade have consistently overestimated interest rates, inflation and the unemployment rate (https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-got-the-decade-all-wrong-theyre-trying-to-figure-out-why-11576346400). He then asks the following…
Our analysis of October labor markets published a month ago highlighted a disturbing development regarding the foreign-born – the second month of a decline in the number of foreign-born workers. The ominous issue was that it resulted from declines in…
Outsourcing is a fairly common theme in the media, often treated as a one-way street, i.e. the jobs that have departed the US. Overlooked are the positive domestic activities of majority-owned U.S. affiliates (MOUSAs) of foreign multinational enterprises. Highlights from…
Despite scary headlines in the media, the reality is that the vast majority of America’s elderly continue to prosper. As Andrew G. Biggs states in a recent report “The things that should be going up are going up, including the…
A report we published last year (“The Seeds of Geographic Inequality Were Planted More Than 100 Years Ago, 28 June 2018) concluded that much of the geographic imbalance observed today resulted from the settlement patterns of the more than 30…
Initial analysis of the October labor markets was positive. Both household employment and the labor force recorded large gains. The participation rate for prime-age workers (persons aged 25-54) which had dipped late last year tacked on another gain (see Chart…
Global economic growth is decelerating and will continue to slow. This projection is based on the fact that the growth rate in the number of persons of working age (15-64 years old), which peaked years ago, is decelerating and will…
August household employment was a blow out to the upside. The number of employed persons increased by 590,000. The labor force participation rate for prime-age workers (persons aged 25-54 years old) turned up as did their employment-population ratio. The 12-month…
Our “Race to Zero” forecast made 27 years ago continues to play out. As we have said before, the world has set sail in unchartered waters. There has never been a time until now that there are more people in…